The US dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency. The exchange pair indicates the number of Russian rubles a person would get in exchange for one US dollar. USD/RUB is the rate of US dollar (USD) in terms of Russian ruble (RUB). How is USD/RUB expected to trade in 2023 and beyond? Here we take a look at the news that is shaping the USD/RUB forecast. However, critics were sceptical about the ruble’s strength due to capital controls put in place by the Russian government to protect its national currency from depreciating. The Russian ruble ( RUB) emerged as the one of the top performing world currencies in 2022 despite economic sanctions placed on Russia by the West. Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, said in a note on Sunday, "a collapse in the rouble appears inevitable on Monday morning", and there was an increased risk of a Russian debt default as a result of the weekend developments.USD/RUB rates have fallen 17% year-to-date as of 2 December – Credit: Shutterstock, Victoria 1 There will be a complete collapse in the rouble today," they wrote. "Even the gold is not liquid if nobody can use FX in exchange for it. The central bank said it would resume buying gold on the domestic market, launch a repurchase auction with no limits and ease restrictions on banks' open foreign currency positions.Īnalysts at Rabobank had warned before the Moscow Exchange opened that the sanctions on currency reserves removed what little support the rouble had. Russia's central bank scrambled to manage the fallout of the sanctions that will block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, with a slew of measures on Sunday. Russia is extremely likely to default on its external debts and its economy will suffer a double digit contraction this year after the Western sanctions, the Institute of International Finance said on Monday. Its European arm faces failure, the European Central Bank (ECB) warned, after a run on its deposits sparked by the backlash from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trading in equities on the Moscow Exchange was closed, but depository receipts and exchange-traded funds listed in London and Frankfurt did open for trading with the London-listed iShares MSCI Russia ETF slumping 48%, taking year-to-date losses to 70%.ĭominant state lender Sberbank's depositary receipts in London dropped more than 70% on the day and are down 93% year-to-date. But new shocks from the geopolitical sphere and sanctions can lead to unpredictable spikes in supply and demand that can disrupt the balance," said Maxim Biryukov, senior analyst at Alfa Capital. "The rate hike to 20% can very substantially limit the ability to open positions against the rouble. Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists. The cost of insuring exposure to Russia's debt through credit default swaps soared to a record 1200 basis points, around tenfold the 124 bps level it stood at by end-December. Russia's sovereign hard currency bonds have suffered a dramatic decline over the past few days, though losses sharply accelerated on Monday with many of the country's dollar bonds dropping more than 40 cents in the dollar on the day and longer-dated issues trading at deeply distressed levels of 29-33 cents, Tradeweb data showed. Per euro, the rouble closed 14% lower at 106.0. It had earlier touched a record low of 120 to the dollar on electronic currency trading platform EBS, and was still trading considerably higher there than in Moscow. dollar, down 14% from Friday's close, with the central bank's 20% key rate hike limiting losses in Moscow trade. In response, President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put nuclear-armed forces on high alert on Sunday.īy early close at 1600 GMT the rouble was trading at 94.60 to the U.S. Russian markets suffered after Western countries stepped up sanctions in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two. On Monday, Russian financial authorities ordered domestic exporting companies to sell 80% of their foreign exchange revenues from Feb.
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